Sunday, March 05, 2006

Oscar Predictions

My favorite day is finally here!! The Oscars are tonight and I have already put some champagne in the frige to chill. Because of the time difference I will be sitting in front of the TV from 1:00 a.m. to about 5:30 a.m. So, I will drink one glass of champagne and then a lot of very strong coffee. I am going to try to work in a nap this afternoon. I have a very long Monday tomorrow, so I want to be a little rested.

Below you will find my predictions for the evening. I wonder how I will do. If you don't care about the Oscars . . . well . . . stop reading.

Best Picture: Brokeback Mountain
Apparently Crash has been doing the whole publicity push thing, but I don't think that it is going to work. Brokeback has won too many other awards, which indicates that the industry is behind it. Also, I have actually seen Crash and did not like it.

Best Director: Ang Lee
He won the Director's Guild, which is a damn good indicator.

Best Actor: Philip Seymour Hoffman
He has won everything and has been described as an "actor's actor." His speech at the Golden Globes also indicated how honored he feels, and the Academy likes stuff like that. I have heard whispering about Terrence Howard (who was the only actor in Crash that I liked), but I think that Hoffman has this locked. What I don't get is the silence about Joaquin Phoenix. When Walk the Line Came out, he was the one to beat AND he won the Golden Globe AND he is good in the movie. What happened? Joaquin is soo uncomfortable with the press and awards shows, that he sort of shot himself in the foot.

Best Actress: Reese Witherspoon
Do you notice how the Academy is acknowledging its younger, more beautiful actresses lately? Think Charlize Theron, Halle Barry, Hillary Swank. Reese is next in line AND she has won everything. It looked like a race a few months ago, but the buzz around Felicity Huffman has died down.

Best Supporting Actor: George Clooney
I really, really wanted to write Paul Giamatti and I still think he has a shot. George took the Golden Globe but Giamatti took the SAG. However, Clooney has done a lot of good stuff this year and he won't win anything else. On the other hand, Giamatti has been getting snubbed, snubbed, snubbed by the Academy. This could be a toss up. I wish my secret celebrity crush, Jake Gyllenhaal, would win, but there is simply no buzz there. I think he should have been nominated for Jarhead. (Side note: there is a lot in the gossip columns about who single guy Jake will be taking. I am going to say his sister and/or parents).

Best Supporting Actress: Rachel Weisz
The appears to be a small campaign for Michelle Williams, but I think Weisz has pulled ahead with all of her other wins.

Best Animated Feature: Wallace & Gromit in the Curse of the Were-Rabbit
Did you know that Rotten Tomatoes named this the best reviewed film of 2005 in wide release? The German and I rented it last weekend. It was FANTASTIC! It is very well made. The details are so fine, you almost forget that it is stop action. Also, it was hilarious and really good for people who are fans of movies (such as moi). There was a whole King Kong thing going on the end which was hilarious. The German also finally said that we could get a dog, BUT only if it is like Gromit. If this movie does not win . . . well . . you bet you will hear about it next week!

Best Foreign-Language Film: Tsotsi (South Africa)
There is a German movie nominated this year (Sophie Scholl--The Final Days), but Tsotsi picked a very good time for it's US premier and has been getting good reviews in the American press. I don't think Paradise Now will win. It has simply been too divisive.

Well, that is my two Euro cents. I could be completely right or completely wrong. Tomorrow I will post with thoughts, about who won and what they were wearing. If they post it on-line, I am going to watch the E! Online Red Carpet Show. I hope Isaac Mizrahi gropes someone!

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